Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Why we should consider the "news" business

1. We are world experts in document management.
2. Our distributed in place network of Igens would allow us to distribute and print, faster, better and cheaper than anoyone else.
3. Our manufacturing partners would have useful timely information in Print to use as promotional material to stay top of mind of their customers at very little expense.
4. It would probably increase the need for toner, supplies and post sale service.

While following how the "news" communication ecology deals with reporting on us, it's become clear that it's a broken system. If they can't get our story straight, how can we reasonably expect that they will be able to communicate the much more complex ever changing story of economic redevelopment in America.

Here's what I mean.

The Fitch Ratings Press Release showed up in my RSS feed at 4:32 today. It took me less than a minute to scan the online document. Then about 30 seconds to find the parts I thought were the crux of the issue. Then another 30 seconds to cut and paste. Then about 5 or 10 minutes to think about what I chose. Then another 10 seconds to post here.

That's the real power of documents. Prepared correctly, a document is the best Search platform ever invented. If the document presents in Print, it's a mass audience. If the document presents on the web, it's a niche audience.

Another function of a document is to enable compare and contrast. You can compare and contrast my view of the world with your view of the world by scanning and searching the full PR release here. And then the AP translation of that document here.

Note how much easier this would be in Print. "Compare and contrast" is how you practice thinking. The rest is skills and character training. That's why readers have to print things out. That's why erasable paper is a game changer. It will enable thinking. That's why when textbooks are reinvented it will be a combination of Print and Kindles.

Anyway, here's what I think is most useful in the Fitch press release.
Ratings strength include:
--Significant recurring post-sale revenue from vast and growing base of installed machines;

--Stable cash generating capability;

--Xerox's strong brand name and product portfolio; and

--Solid liquidity and credit metrics, especially core metrics.

Fitch's rating concerns consist of:
--The impact of the global weak macroeconomic environment on sales and profitability, especially on equipment sales;

--Increasing write-offs in the financing receivables portfolio due to rising customer bankruptcies;

--Intense competition resulting in consistent equipment pricing pressure, especially in the office segment; and

--Limited organic revenue growth.

A positive rating action could result if
--Growth in post sale revenue and profitability more than offsets a decline in equipment sales, allowing for total revenue growth in 2009.

--There is a material improvement in credit metrics, via debt reduction or operating profit improvement.

A negative rating action could result if:
--Significant further acceleration in sales and/or profitability declines occurs, especially in post-sale, driven by reduced demand amid the current global economic downturn. Ongoing material declines in post-sale revenue would indicate that the revenue stream is more susceptible to economic factors than previously anticipated.

--Significant deterioration in the quality of the company's financing portfolio resulting in further write-offs and lower FCF.

--Free cash flow trends below Fitch's expectation, due to profitability declines and/or working capital uses, which would weaken the company's liquidity position relative to its ratings.

--A significant debt-financed acquisition outside of current expectations or resumption of share repurchases during the economic downturn.
At 5:32 PM, incoming RSS presented the Forbes posting of the AP story. The AP translated the document and slapped a copyright on the rewrite. As in:
Copyright 2008 Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed

There are two kinds of news.

One is seeing what is happening in the real world. Then crafting a story about it. The other, our sweet spot, is translating documents to craft the story we want to tell our viewers. I say viewers instead of readers because very few people have the time to read. If you want the longer story on that, I did a post on my other blog. You can find it here.

Public Relations used to be about managing the public discourse or the "news cycle." We all saw how well that worked in the last election cycle. Today, most of what passes for news is rebroadcasting PR releases. Now, that's falling apart. People don't trust the news because they have learned that most of it is recycling "news product" to attract eyeballs. But our problem is NOT to attract eyeballs. Our problem is to get the facts out to investors and customers.

So, until the news industry stops worrying about how the sky is falling, we have an opportunity.
With our CEO sitting next to the President we have the best source on the planet for what the economic advisors are thinking. Given the drive for transparency, it should be public information. Because the real problem of America is to get people much smarter, much faster we can do well, by doing good.

Meanwhile, Fitch says they are concerned with questions of organic growth. Fair enough. Our global network of standards based iGen owners is one source of organic growth.. It's not the tech. Sooner or later everyone gets the tech. Now with IBM+Ricoh and Screen entering the long run transpromo in the States (I prefer to call it TransInfo) that's getting pretty crowded.

Our advantage is the deep relationships we have with the people who run the iGens on the ground. The boxes, the common concerns about growing business, the common Xerox standards and languages and maybe the most important, trusted personal relationships, have created the foundations of a huge reserve of global social capital. While the box business is settling down, we can monetize our advantage in social capital with a single minded focus on "distribute and Print".

Back to the news opportunity.
To the extent that "news" organization translate documents, we can do it better. To the extent that niche publications in Print delivered to decision makers and opinion leaders has real value, we can do it better. To the extent that our country needs much smarter opinion leaders to guide the public discourse, we can make a significant difference.

The steps:
1.Gather public documents - Congressional hearing transcripts, State and regulatory transcripts, Bills in Progress, Bills Passed etc.

2. Task our PR firm with crafting stories for different niche audiences.
Our audience in Dubai or London is not worried about the same things as our audience on Wall Street or Cleveland.

3. Create multiple press ready PDFs. The flat size is 14 by 20. As far as I know, we do the best 14 x 20 on the planet.

4. Move the PDF's through the Cloud to our iGen output network.

5. Get buy in from our partners.
First, giving them a timely interesting publication that they can send regularly to prospects and customers.

Second, by showing them how to sell local ads in their locally produced newsletters. They will have an easy path to find new prospects, talk to existing customers and demonstrate the power of timely information about important issues.
The societal benefit is that the Xerox network is well positioned to have a significant effect on making people smarter, faster. Do well, by doing good.
Xerox used to mean Copy. Today, Xerox means Print. Anywhere.

Google it. Find it. Xerox it. Anywhere.


Revision after original post:
I just did a post at my other blog, Print In the Communication Ecology, talking about the same thing to a different audience.
Added at 9:27 Eastern Time.
This is not as hard as it seems. Back in the day at Parsons, in the Pub Center I set up, two professionals + one very good student, organized an international exhibition of 14 x 20 posters in Belgrade in three weeks with art supplied for free from about 30 great designers from all over the globe. The money invested was about $200. It took about 3 weeks from idea to exhibition and got 35 minutes of local television time.
You can watch the video on YouTube. Here's the video- stored at YouTube.



Xerox News Network? Xerox TV? It has a pretty good ROI.

Xerox Offers Nuanced Assessment of BRIC Economies

read at Seeking Alpha
"Xerox (XRX) was buffeted this quarter by forex headwinds and by a dramatic decline in revenues from developing markets. Revenues fell 14% in those markets, versus growth of 17% during Q1-308.

The company offers a more nuanced assessment of the BRIC countries on its Q408 conference call: (XRX)

As we look at the BRIC countries, the biggest impact to Xerox would be Brazil and Russia where we have sizeable high growth businesses. India is a relatively small business for us so although conditions there certainly are not great, I wouldn’t say it’s had a dramatic impact overall. As you know China, we only see either the risk or the benefit through our equity relationship with Fuji Xerox."

So if I can get a better insight on what is happening in Brazil from reading the conference call, what exactly is the value add of a newspaper?

So..in addition to Xerox TV on YuTube, how about the Xerox News Network. We can partner with Google. Then Google it. Find it. Print it. Anywhere. And the distribution points are the Xerox Global Output Network.

The education business and the news business are in deep disarray. We have the skill, the social network and the output network to enter those spaces while we're waiting for commercial print to straighten out.

660News Calgary - Obama says he's confident he will get stimulus bill approved

660News Calgary - Obama says he's confident he will get stimulus bill approved
"President Barack Obama sits with Xerox Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Anne Mulcahy, as he meets with business leaders to discuss the economy, Wednesday, Jan. 28, 2009, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington. THE ASSOCIATED PRESS/Charles Dharapak"

I couldn't figure out how to grab the photo, so you'll have to click the link. Anyway, Go Anne! It's a pretty neat picture. Barak in the foreground..with the boss slightly out of focus behind him.

President Obama Woos Fat Cat CEOs

read at abc.com
"In the White House's Roosevelt Room Wednesday morning, President Obama met with more than a dozen CEOs of companies ranging from Aetna to Xerox to discuss the economy and the stimulus package being voted upon in the House of Representatives."
Give me a break. Fat cat Ceo's, indeed. Now there's a pretty helpful way to frame the public discourse. Or is it a pretty helpful way to attract eyeballs?

And they wonder why the "news" business model is broken. it must be the internet's fault. (The rest of the story is about as helpful and chock full of info as the lede.)

Dear PR department: Since the news media is so lame, why not get Anne to get together with Eric Schmidt to tell us in real words what happened at the meeting. Then we could even Google it. Find it. Xerox it. Anywhere. and move it to all the commercial printers in our network. They send it out to all there customers.

The only thing this is it has to be done today. It loses about 80% of it's value the day after tmw.It's still ok next week, but the cool factor disappears.

Now that's business development I can believe in.

iGen4 sales push struggling Xerox Q4 results

Is that headline correct?

read at printweek.com
"However, revenues from the sale of colour production presses such as the iGen4 and the 700 were up 4%. I keep looking for PR releases of Igen 4 installs and have only found 1 so far.
I keep scanning for PR releases about Igen4 installs. So far I've seen one in the states and maybe 1 or 2 in Europe. I might have missed some, but . . .
So is it the 700 or the Igen4? Meanwhile, nice work at up 4% in this environment.
Post sales revenues were down 8% for the quarter, with supplies, paper and other sales of $850m down 11% year on year.
That's normal for an infrastructure revenue stream. We should probably focus on that to make it faster and easier to sell our infrastructure products.
Xerox Global Services also revealed full year growth of 3%, bringing in $3.5bn in annuity revenues.
Nice top line. But I could never figure out the bottom line on XGS. Maybe it would be cool to give XGS their own P&L?

Anne Mulcahy in Orlando

read at BtoB Magazine:
"Story posted: January 27, 2009 - 12:31 pm EDT
Orlando, Fla.—Xerox Corp. CEO Anne Mulcahy is optimistic about the prospects for U.S. business innovation despite the current recession.

“There is no more important time for research and innovation investment than now,” Mulcahy told a packed room of marketing executives Tuesday at the American Marketing Association’s M.planet conference here. Mulcahy added that she was hopeful that the new administration’s economic stimulus package would take innovation into account.

“At times like this, success or failure depends on research and innovation,” Mulcahy said. During a previous economic downturn, she noted, Xerox executives considered cutting the company’s research and development funding. Instead, they cut $4 billion from elsewhere in the company’s budget and left R&D intact.

Marketing leadership within an organization also plays a vital role in tough economic times, Mulcahy said. “This is not a time to be quiet and subdued,” she said. “It is time to be bold, and marketing has to have a strong role.”

With all due respect, here's what's wrong with that approach:
It's 20th century language for a Google-Mart, Obama defined world. Success or failure does indeed depend on research. But innovation depends on reflective practice in solving real world problems, either now or as close to now as possible.

For example, erasable paper. If the market does what it plausibly might do, E (as in erasable) -paper could change the rules. Sure, right now we are beneficiaries of the old rules. But I'm sure our people can figure out a way around that one.

So why not do a Google or a Wal-Mart. Start a beta, now. Maybe small design studios is a good place to test it out. Then get real people to use it. Then tell everyone about what they figured out. Then keep refining it - not the tech, the business model- until it is ready to scale. Then scale. And reap the benefits of disruptive innovation on the ground.

If someone focuses, I bet this could be done in 6 months.

Or we can keep having focus groups and meetings and . . . .Until some Indian company or a start up in Iowa figures it out, grabs market share in India. Then moves through the Middle East. Then comes to America. Then we buy them, ignore them, or compete with them or pay to partner with them.

Postscript anyone?

As for the $4 billion cut from other parts of the organization and funding research. Great. I assume the new toner farms and the last two years of equipment came from this research. Hats off, to our brilliant engineers and scientists.

But maybe we should consider starting a University and getting a revenue stream and a place to work with the next generation directly. Instead of grants to "institutes of Higher Ed", why not set up Xerox University. Pixar did it many years ago. You can read about why it's such a good strategy here and here and here. Just leave it to Steve Jobs. After all the money he made from PARC, I think it would only be fitting to make alot of money from what Pixar figured out.

Wouldn't it be cool if we didn't have to hunt through design schools to find creatives who get it. And think of all the time our people waste holding hands with folks in "Higher Education." Meanwhile all of our customers are desperate for designers who get it. The design schools don't know how to teach it. How about an employment service for people who buy boxes? We sell them the boxes. And give them access to the talent they need. Plus the smart kids go into printing. Plus our scientists can get the cred of being in a University.

Now that's post sale revenue that just goes on and on. Plus we get paid on the front end by the government! Economic stimulus program, anyone?

After all, education is the best business in America. Given what's going on in Washington it's only going to get bigger. So while, we're figuring out where the print business is going to end up. Let's consider going into the education business. Since we are really smart and don't have the legacy structure to worry about, I'm positive we could do it better, faster, cheaper than most of the players out there. Educate more kids. Support our research.

Maybe we could staff it with some of the baby boomers we have to excess to get our SG&A down to 16+%? Or with our staff who love to teach. And waste their time "educating customers." Take the same budget and educate the future generation directly.

No matter how I look at it, I can't figure out why this wouldn't work.

And marketing?

Very few people still know what we really do. Xerox is still not any where near as cool as it should it, and most of the design community thinks our latest rebrand is lame. If you don't believe me, read here.

So marketing? yes, it would probably be a good idea to get some marketing.

The good news is that our competitors are not much better. But sooner or later someone is going to figure it out.

Xerox YouTube channel, anyone?

Patents are like Pulitzers. Great but . . .

Sam Zell is reputed to have said something like "You can't take a Pultizer to the bank." Academy Awards however do lead directly to box office the next weekend. That's why entertainment can be a great business. Mostly you lose, sometimes you win big. But at least every day you know how you're doing.

Just curious, how are we doing with the erasable paper? I'm thinking it will be boffo at the box office.

Meanwhile, in Norwalk, Conn, they think we are "a developer and manufacturer of office products and services" They're pretty close by to corporate. Maybe someone should pay them a visit, or at least make a phone call.
From The Advocate in Norwalk Conn.
"Xerox Corp., Norwalk-based developer and manufacturer of office products and services, closed last year earning more than 230 industry awards, an increase of more than 20 percent over the previous year. Industry publications and independent testing and research firms around the world recognized Xerox office products and services for attributes including image quality, performance and technical innovation."
Also, Anyone have any reactions to
Yesterday, Xerox=Copy. Today, Xerox=Copy+Scan+Print
Google it. Find it. Xerox it. Anywhere.
Please feel free to comment as anon.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

What Would Google Do?

read at Newsweek.com
"'Google is an avalanche and it has only just begun to tumble down the mountain,' Jeff Jarvis writes in a new book called 'What Would Google Do?' that advises pretty much everyone—you, your company, entire industries, and the U.S. government—to study and ape the online juggernaut, or risk getting buried. Jarvis writes like he changes jobs, which is to say rapidly. He has been a TV critic, magazine founder, blogger, investor and professor, and if 'WWGD' occasionally goes into sound-bite overdrive (the phrase 'small is the new big' is used more than a dozen times, among other abuses), the habit can be excused as the tic of a guy who's got a lot to say about the future of technology. He spoke with NEWSWEEK's Nick Summers from Munich, where he is attending a conference in advance of the 2009 World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. . . .
Now, if he adds what would Wal Mart do, it would really be helpful.

Nice article by Ms. Burns in Business Week

read the full column "Is the Green Movement a Passing Fancy" at BusinessWeek:
Smart Business for Everyone
So maybe we need to reset the way we think about environmental responsibility. At Xerox (XRX), my job is to meet the needs of our customers and our shareholders. The thing is, what I do at my job and how I do my part for the environment are not mutually exclusive. 'Green' is not a corporate function housed in a separate unit devoted to social responsibility; green solutions and sustainable strategies are smart business—for everyone. The greener we get, the more we can reduce costs and boost efficiency. The more we reduce costs, the more productive a business can become and the better we can weather the maladies of the global business market."
Go team!

Now, if we can fix the transition for our excessed employees and get SG&A down to 16+% and get the erasable paper to the market, we'll be in really great shape when the economy starts turning around.

Are state firms operating in tax havens? - The Connecticut Post Online

read at The Connecticut Post Online
By Rob Varnon
STAFF WRITER

. . . GE flat out disagreed with the report.

"We actively do business in more than 100 countries, a number of which are included in the GAO report," said Peter O'Toole, a GE spokesman. "We have great customers in those countries, and so disagree with what we believe is a misinterpretation of the report conclusion.

"Xerox's Web site listed it as having business operations in 160 countries, from factories to distributorships including many of the places the GAO reported as tax havens.
. . .
The concern for the government is not whether the companies operate businesses, but whether they are crediting income earned in the U.S. to those operations in tax havens, thereby depriving U.S. coffers of tax money connected to those earnings.

There's evidence that some U.S. multinationals are doing that, according to White.

In a separate report published in August 2008, the GAO found "multinationals are in fact shifting income from where they earn it to places with low tax rates." That report was limited to just seeing if it was happening, White said, and not who was doing it.

GE has a quote from a spokesman. We have someone going to our website. Maybe someone should give Rob a call and get in front of this story. Remember, President Obama is putting in place new expectations about transparency and accountability. After years of very hard work, we're mostly on the side of the angels. It would be good to stay there.