Tuesday, January 27, 2009

More stuff. Less marketing

ASICentral - Press Room : Press Releases
TREVOSE, PA – November 10, 2008 - Advertising Specialty Institute, the largest media and marketing organization serving the advertising specialty industry, revealed today in a groundbreaking new study that advertising specialties beat out all forms of TV, radio and print advertising as the most cost-effective advertising medium available.

The comprehensive study was completed by a team of interviewers who surveyed travelers in New York, Chicago, Los Angeles and Philadelphia*. Respondents were asked if they had received any advertising specialties in the last 12 months and the majority were businesspeople over age 21."

So, put on a QR code that takes their cell phone to a website, and we keep lowering the cost of marketing. Or...we let the viewers download a really cool Xerox pen. We will mail it for free, and get their contact information. Then we give those leads to everybody who touches everybody. We get a metric on the channel - how many downloaded pens, t-shirts, baseball caps. Our sales channels get the contact information, if they cross sell production capabilities of Premier Partners.

Sounds like it would cost pretty close to nothing. We cut the PR and Advertising budgets. We get to refer people to the Xerox Print Anywhere Network. And our SG&A gets closer and closer to 16+%.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased 0.3 Percent

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. Increased 0.3 Percent:
The U.S. LEI increased 0.3 percent, The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI) decreased 0.5 percent and The Conference Board Lagging Economic Index (LAG) decreased 0.4 percent in December."

So I'm betting we're going to get out of this alot faster than most people think. Remember the US mobilization for WWII. We may be a unruly bunch, but once we all get on the same page . . .
If I'm right, lots of people are going to need toner and paper.

Here comes internet TV with a gezillion channels.

The last mile is PC to TV. What do you think? My bet is 3rd quarter and then mainstream. Meanwhile, the great "How is Google going to monetize YouTube" question looks like "become a TV network and sell advertising." That seems like a good business model.

If we could sell toner and paper with their cost of sales, it would be a lot easier for me to get a good dividend while we all wait for the "Market" to come back to the real world.

At any rate, how about we do the Xerox YouTube channel and be ahead of the curve? Maybe we could use the channel to sell E-Paper directly from the web. No channels. Very quick. It's a nice way to scale before someone else does. Plus it would probably help drive SG&A down to the WalMart metric of 16+%. Maybe we could hire some recently excessed to manage it or produce the ads. Comp them based on clicks.

Or maybe some of our recently excessed could do it themselves. Or maybe some of the great creatives in our network could do it. Then sell it to us for a gezillion dollars.
read at MediaPost
"The NBC/News Corp. Hulu video site will get one of the biggest marketing platforms ever for the Internet video site: this Sunday's Super Bowl to add on NBC.

The company issued a press release announcing the media buy.

Analysts note that the Super Bowl has had a price tag of $3 million for a 30-second spot, although the price tag has dropped in recent days, according to reports."

Watch this very closely Re Kodak

From a discussion at PrintCeoBlog.com..
Completely agree with you. “Education” is a huge sales expense. We have partnered with Kodak to offer their Unified Worklfow as an On-Demand model. We are really pushing with Kodak the idea of SaaS as a POC since education is such a huge expense for sales in any software company

Follow this link to see what it's all about.
Disruptive innovation usually comes from outside big outfits. Nobody's fault. It's just that in a big outfit job one is to serve existing customers. Outsiders are not shackled with that obligation and don't have a legacy to protect.

But it seems that Centripetal has gotten Kodak's attention. Centripetal has it right.This is the way to scale distribute and print. My bet is that it could evolve into a Cloud based production infrastructure that will feed clicks all over the planet. It would probably be a good idea to buy, partner or grow this functionality for Xerox. Or at minimum make sure it connects with us as seamlessly as it probably will connect with Kodak.

Monday, January 26, 2009

Yikes! Citi Got it Right.

from StreetInsider.com
"January 26, 2009 8:33 AM EST

Citi reiterates a 'Buy' on Xerox Corp (NYSE: XRX), lowers price target from $13 to $12.

Citi analyst says, 'While we are reducing 2009 revenue and EPS estimates to reflect unfavorable FX swings, we reiterate our Buy rating based on valuation and strong cash flow. The shares currently trade at just 7X our revised 2009 EPS despite a 15-20% free cash flow yield. Our revised target (down to $12 from $13 previously) suggests 71% upside during the coming year, although these gains are likely to be back-end loaded...On a more positive note, Post-sale revenue (which includes Equipment Rentals, Services, Financing and transactional supplies and paper sales) was flat yoy in constant currency during 4CQ08 excluding the impact of the supplies channel inventory correction. Moreover, mgmt cited stable renewal rates on Equipment Rental and Services contracts.'

Xerox Corporation (Xerox) is a technology and services enterprise."

"technology and services" still doesn't mean anything to real people, but at least it does no harm.

The Xerox Channel on YouTube

Did anyone else notice that President Obama used YouTube to address the nation on the economic plan? Or that the Republicans posted their response on YouTube? Obama's video got 800,000 hits as of 9:15 am on Monday. Consider what 800,000 viewers would cost through a regular media buy. Consider what a neat metric how many people choose to view a video.

What a nice way to get the information PR needs without paying a cent.

If it's managed correctly, I bet that we can find some of our "excessed" employees to manage this thing from their homes. With a base comp and an upside based on results measured by number of hits.

So...suppose we did this:

1. Find the 5 most creative people at our agency.
2. Get them to do some very cool 2 minute videos about Xerox, Xeroids, PARC, Dubai, Rochester, MFPs, Igens, etc.etc.
3. Create the Xerox channel at YouTube.
4. Then use the deep connections we've made to creatives to get them to do the same thing.
5. Have a contest for college student designers for videos that tell the story that:
Yesterday, Xerox = Copy. Today, Xerox = Print and Scan. Anywhere.
as in . . . Google it. Find it. Xerox it. Anywhere.
6. And have everyone upload videos to the Xerox Channel on You Tube.

When PC to TV screen finally gets settled, we'll be ready with a massive library of videos. If they are cool enough, people will watch them for fun. And people will start to understand how really cool we are.

Meanwhile stop trying to fight our greatest brand advantage. Forget about the "registered", "copyright", "do not use this name under penalty of blablabla".

It could save us some money and wasted focus for our lawyers. Plus we could probably pay the 5 most creative ad agency folks a fraction of what the Agency costs. It might be a way to get our SG&A down to 16+%, without having to lose so many valuable people.

Plus in the era of Obama, imagine the free press coverage we would get. PR anyone?

My favorite phrase in the Q4 Conference Call

. . . we’re not having litigation in ’09.
Wonder what the plan is for all the money we've been spending for lawyers? Given that the old idea of protecting the brand through IP and litigation makes no sense in a Google-Mart world, what is the plan for the excess capacity?

Perhaps they would like to lead an employee transition program?
read at Connecticut Law Tribune:
Conn. firms to get piece of $120 million from securities case settlement

By DOUGLAS S. MALAN

The final touches had been placed on one of the top securities fraud settlements in American history, but there was still one major bone of contention—how much would the plaintiffs’ attorneys receive?

That issue was settled on Jan. 14 by Judge Alvin W. Thompson in the U.S. District Court in Hartford when he awarded $120 million in attorneys’ fees, plus $3.3 million in costs, in Carlson v. Xerox.

The fees and costs are part of a $750 million settlement that Xerox, the Norwalk-based digital printer and document management company, agreed to pay to investors while facing allegations that the. . .
Note to PR: "digital printer" . Somebody should give these people a phone call. Don't bother with an email, they'll ignore it. Or someone could hand deliver a Print document. It will stay on their desk, but I bet they get it right the next time.

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Free advice about what to do next.

Of course you get what you pay for. So consider the source.

1. Design a transition program for Xerox people.

No doubt SG&A has to get down to succeed going forward. Probably WalMart's 16+% is a good target. Many Xeroids are ready to leave to try something else. Figure out ways they can work on line to create value with their deep knowledge and experience of the Company.

2. Cut any advertising or marketing that is not delivering measurable results.

But be very careful what we measure. The sales cycle is long for production equipment so it's going to hard to know exactly what the measure should be. But we have lots of smart people on board. If they are given the time, I'm sure they can do it. But TV broadcast ads on Meet the Press or other Sunday shows? That makes no sense to me.

3. Connect with the real creatives at our advertising agencies and stop paying for Print buys.

If the Print ads are in the service of deepening an ongoing relationship, that makes sense. But anything else is a waste of money. Start a Xerox channel on YouTube. (That's what Google is doing.) Make the videos cool and fun. Stop worrying about talking to organizations in ads. They don't watch ads. They love us any way and are sold by personal relations and the right price. "Nobody ever got fired for buying Xerox."

4. If 70% of our revenue is toner, supplies and post sales, align our investments with that reality.

Make it better, faster and cheaper to buy our paper and toner. Focus on delivering perceived value in return for click charges. If we don't, that's going to go away to box sales that don't have click charges attached.

5. Measure the results of our PR outfit.

Keep doing Google searches of the words that are used in the media to describe Xerox. Get a baseline on the number of "office equipment" or "copy" or the many other silly misconceptions out there. Then figure out the right words. My favorite is "world's largest color print manufacturer with a global reach" or Xerox manages a global information infrastructure with Print outlets all over the planet". I will leave the exact phrase to PR professionals.

Then negotiate a "pay for performance" compensation. As the use of the right words increase, their compensation increases. If not, then not so much.

5. Align the comp of XGS with the rest of the company or spin them off.

If they get comped on toner, supplies and post sale great. If not, give them their own P&L. And give shareholders a piece. They will probably produce better and faster. And the Market won't be so confused about what we do. Worked pretty well for Verizon. Not so much for ATT.

6. Incent the Global Imaging Systems sales channel to refer work to Xerox Print vendors.

While this might lead to some channel conflicts, perhaps a way to get this started is to do a regional division to Xerox Premier Partners. The pitch is "when it's too much to print here, send the work to X." X would still compete on price and service, but the value of the referrals increases the value of the Xerox network. Every MFP should provide an entry point to Xerox production equipment. Another thought is to connect GIS salespeople and Xerox Print vendor salespeople as teams that can cross sell to SMB.

I'll post more as I think of more stuff.

Life After Xerox

read at Graphic Arts Online:
"Before joining Kaye-Smith, Hartley was the Solutions Development Manager in the Advanced Solutions Group at Xerox Corporation, where she was responsible for the workflow and business development strategies for the commercial print marketplace. Prior to that, she was the Product Marketing Manager for North American Agent Operations at Xerox, where she was responsible for all marketing and field deployment activities for the division, including business strategy, marketing communications, sales force and specialist training and integration strategies related to the color digital print business."

I have to believe that with a little help from the Company, most employees would invent a good way to earn a living. Doesn't really need a lot of money. Just some focus.

Plus consider the "brand" building by scattering 3000 Xeroids into the communication ecology. We could probably cut the advertising budget in half. So instead of spending $375 million to excess 3,000 people, we spend $10 million and create our own loyal fan base.

More on Q4 Conference Call

Unless I've read this wrong, it seems we took a $349 million hit in the fourth quarter to save $200 million in 2009. If I understand this correctly, it doesn't make sense.

Without that hit, our profit would have been $350 million for the quarter instead of $1 million. Now that's a story that the "Market" would probably have loved. Maybe the stock price would have gone up, instead of down.

Did anyone consider investing say $10 million to start transition teams for our people? With their deep knowledge and dedication to the company I have to believe there are 100's of potential entrepreneurial possibilities.

Setting up school based education programs or small businesses or mentoring new employees organized into transition teams are just a few top of the mind approaches. If the ideas of these employees were tapped I'm sure new and exciting ways to use our strengths would have emerged.

It seems a waste of valuable social capital. There should be a way to fix this.

Note to Investor Relations: Any chance we could do what Google does?
http://investor.google.com/earnings.html
read at Financial Post
"NEW YORK -- Xerox Corp said on Friday it barely eked out a profit in the fourth quarter due to weak sales and US$349-million in restructuring costs, and it forecast first-quarter results below analysts' targets.

The leading provider of digital printers and document management services, whose growth is driven by sales of services and supplies for printing machines, said fourth-quarter net income was US$1-million, or nil per share, down from US$382-million, or 41 cents a share, a year earlier.

Excluding special items, including litigation charges, profit was 32 cents a share, a penny below the average Wall Street forecast, according to Reuters Estimates.

Late last year Xerox (XRX/NYSE) announced a restructuring plan that included about 3,000 job cuts, aimed at saving US$200-million in 2009. In the fourth quarter, restructuring charges were 27 cents a share."