Thursday, April 16, 2009

How to plan for Black Swans

From Nassib Taleb's Blo

Where I explain the problems, show how to deal with it (“what to do about the Black Swan”) and provide exhaustive DATA:

Technical version: Errors, Robustness, and the Fourth Quadrant, International Journal of Forecasting, 2010, (in Press)

Literary/philosophical version on

Exposition of my problem to statisticians: Black Swan and Domains of Statistics, The American Statistician, August 2007, Vol. 61, No. 3

The short story is act right, respect everyone, don't tell lies and use your natural common sense.

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