The short story is act right, respect everyone, don't tell lies and use your natural common sense.
Where I explain the problems, show how to deal with it (“what to do about the Black Swan”) and provide exhaustive DATA:
Technical version: Errors, Robustness, and the Fourth Quadrant, International Journal of Forecasting, 2010, (in Press)
Literary/philosophical version on Edge.org:
Exposition of my problem to statisticians: Black Swan and Domains of Statistics, The American Statistician, August 2007, Vol. 61, No. 3
Thursday, April 16, 2009
How to plan for Black Swans
at 11:33 AM